Ryanair group chief executive Michael O’Leary expects jet fuel costs to remain elevated for another 12–18 months, extending pressure on European airlines into 2027 and potentially early 2028. Speaking at an Airlines for Europe press conference on October 8, he said carriers face a substantial cost challenge next year.
O’Leary distinguished expensive fuel from a shortage, saying he did not expect supplies to run out soon. His comments came alongside executives from Air France-KLM, Lufthansa, easyJet and IAG, as the industry contends with higher fuel costs linked to the Iran war.
Ryanair has some protection through advance fuel-price hedging. In its July quarterly results, the airline said 80% of its requirements through March 2027 were hedged at approximately $67 a barrel. The remaining 20% was exposed to market prices, which more than doubled for that unhedged portion during the April–June quarter.
The warning follows O’Leary’s September 23 surcharge pledge: Ryanair would not introduce a separate fuel surcharge, although he expected some competitors to do so next summer. That commitment concerns an additional charge; it does not amount to a promise that the airline’s underlying ticket prices will remain unchanged.
We previously covered Ryanair’s profit decline for April–June, when after-tax earnings fell 34% to €538 million and average fares dropped 6%. That combination shows why higher fuel costs do not translate immediately into higher fares: airlines must also respond to demand while managing the pressure on their margins.
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