The International Energy Agency has warned that Europe may have only about six weeks of jet fuel left if oil and fuel flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain blocked by the Iran war. Fatih Birol, the agency’s executive director, said the risk is no longer limited to higher energy prices and could soon affect airline operations directly. If the route remains constrained, carriers may face fuel shortages severe enough to force flight cancellations on some routes.
The warning matters because the Strait of Hormuz remains one of the most important energy corridors in the world. A significant share of globally traded oil moves through the waterway under normal conditions, which means prolonged disruption can quickly affect refining, transport, and aviation supply chains far beyond the Middle East. Birol also said the consequences would extend across gasoline, gas, and electricity markets, adding pressure to inflation and broader economic growth.
For the travel industry, the concern is shifting from cost inflation to physical availability. Airlines have already been dealing with higher fuel bills, but a supply squeeze would create a more serious operational challenge during the peak travel season. If restrictions persist, carriers, airports, and governments may be forced to prioritize fuel allocation, adjust schedules, and reduce capacity. That would put summer travel plans under pressure even if passenger demand remains relatively strong.
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