The Thanksgiving rush is shaping up to be historic, arriving just days after the U.S. government shutdown finally ended and the aviation system began its slow return to normal.
While the shutdown caused widespread flight cancellations and uncertainty for millions of travelers, early forecasts show that Americans are still overwhelmingly determined to travel for the holiday – even if it means adjusting plans or switching travel modes at the last minute.
According to the latest AAA forecast, nearly 81.8 million people are expected to travel at least 50 miles from home between November 25 and December 1 – about 1.6 million more travelers than last year.
A Historic Surge in Road and Air Travel
Road travel continues to dominate Thanksgiving plans, with AAA estimating 73 million travelers hitting the highways – nearly 90% of all holiday travelers. Lower car rental prices and stable gas costs compared to last year are contributing to the increase, as is uncertainty around air travel following recent waves of flight cancellations.
Popular car rental markets such as Orlando, Atlanta, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, and Newark are expecting their busiest days on the Wednesday before Thanksgiving.
Safety remains a major concern during this high-volume period. AAA and MADD are urging travelers to plan ahead and avoid impaired driving, noting that more than a third of Thanksgiving roadway fatalities in recent years have been linked to alcohol-related crashes.
Last year alone, AAA responded to nearly 600,000 emergency roadside calls, most involving flat tires, battery issues, and empty fuel tanks.
At airports, six million travelers are expected to fly domestically – a modest 2% increase from 2024. However, that number could shift as some air travelers decide to drive instead after the disruptions caused during the shutdown.
Roundtrip domestic flights are averaging around $700, and many travelers are choosing to fly on Thanksgiving Day itself to avoid higher fares tied to peak return dates like Sunday and Monday.
Cruises, Trains, and Top Destinations
Beyond driving and flying, nearly 2.5 million Americans will travel by bus, train, or cruise this Thanksgiving – an 8.5% increase. Cruise travel, in particular, continues to grow at record pace, with 20.7 million Americans expected to sail this year and even more projected for 2026. Caribbean itineraries remain especially attractive for families seeking warm weather, ease of planning, and entertainment for all ages.
AAA’s top domestic destinations are dominated by warm-weather favorites and theme park hubs, including Orlando, Miami, Fort Lauderdale, Los Angeles, Honolulu, New York, San Francisco, and Las Vegas. Internationally, travelers are heading to cities like Paris, Amsterdam, Vienna, Cancun, Punta Cana, Sydney, Barcelona, and Aruba, reflecting a blend of European charm and tropical escapes.
Traffic analysts at INRIX warn of severe congestion on many major highways, particularly on Tuesday and Wednesday before Thanksgiving and on Sunday for the return trip. In cities such as New York, Los Angeles, Washington, D.C., and Boston, delays could more than double typical travel times.
Despite the challenges, one thing is certain: Thanksgiving travel in 2025 is not slowing down. From packed highways to bustling airports and full cruise terminals, Americans remain determined to reunite with family and friends – even if it means navigating the busiest holiday travel landscape in history.
