Thailand’s tourism industry, which began 2026 with strong international visitor numbers, is facing growing uncertainty as the conflict in the Middle East disrupts long-haul travel routes and airline operations. Officials warn that prolonged airspace closures and rising aviation costs could significantly affect travel flows to the country in the coming months.
According to Thailand’s Ministry of Tourism and Sports, the country welcomed 7,240,626 international visitors between January 1 and March 8, generating about 356 billion baht in tourism revenue. Despite the headline figure, however, recent data suggests the sector has begun to lose momentum.
Ministry figures show that arrivals during the first two months of the year totaled around 6.54 million visitors, representing a 4.2% decline compared with the same period in 2025. The downturn is particularly noticeable in several key regional markets across Asia.
Arrivals from Vietnam dropped by nearly 40%, while travelers from Malaysia – Thailand’s second-largest market after China – declined by more than 28%. Cambodia recorded the steepest drop, with arrivals falling by more than 90% compared with the previous year. Other regional markets, including Indonesia, South Korea, Singapore, and Japan, also showed declines.
At the same time, some major markets have continued to grow. Arrivals from India increased by more than 17%, while China recorded a modest 4.2% rise during the same period.
Long-Haul Travel Disruptions Hit Tourism
While Asian markets have shown mixed performance, the biggest concern for Thailand’s tourism sector is the impact on long-haul travel. Officials say the Middle East conflict has disrupted major international flight routes that connect Europe and other regions with Southeast Asia.
Many flights between Europe and Asia normally pass through Middle Eastern airspace or rely on major transit hubs in the Gulf region. With airlines rerouting flights or reducing operations, travel times and costs have increased.
According to Thailand’s tourism authorities, long-haul arrivals have already dropped by about 13% since the conflict began. The decline has been particularly visible among travelers from Europe and the Middle East.
Data cited by Thailand’s Ministry of Tourism and Sports indicates that arrivals from Europe, the Middle East, the Americas, and Africa fell by nearly 14% in early March compared with the same period last year. European visitors alone dropped by more than 14%, while arrivals from the Middle East fell by more than 76%.
The aviation disruptions have also led to flight cancellations. In the first week of March, more than 400 flights to and from Thailand were cancelled, most of them at Bangkok’s Suvarnabhumi Airport.
Tourism officials are now modeling several scenarios depending on how long the disruption continues. In a worst-case scenario where airspace restrictions last eight weeks or more, Thailand could lose nearly 600,000 international visitors and about 40.9 billion baht in tourism revenue.
Authorities are now focusing on strengthening short-haul markets such as China, India, and other Asian countries to offset potential losses from long-haul travelers. Tourism planners are also exploring alternative flight connections through Asian aviation hubs to maintain access to European visitors.
